As English government faces its latest round of reorganisation, the minister at the head of the process has been clear about the minimum population size he expects to see when the new unitary council proposals emerge.
Simon Clarke has suggested an optimum population size of 400-500,000, with a lower limit of 300,000. His thinking is believed to have been formed by a 2006 research paper by Cardiff University on the impact of population on local authority performance.
In short, the research found three-quarters of value for money measures were impacted by the size of the authority. The report claims performance ‘tends to be better in large than small authorities’ – although savings for high spend areas such as education and social services were less than those for services such as arts and leisure.
But the report has a warning: ‘The relationship between population and performance is a complex mosaic, which means that proposals for reorganisation in each local area need to be considered separately.’
Given Mr Clarke’s outline figures, the Cardiff report’s findings, and looking at the latest ONS population data, even the largest district councils in the country would need to be amalgamated to hit the Government’s minimum size.
But it’s not just the districts that are deemed not big enough. While the reorganisation debate has focused on two-tier areas, there are plenty of existing unitary councils that fail to make the grade when it comes to Mr Clarke’s benchmark.
For the metropolitan authorities and even the London boroughs, there is already a devolution landscape with metro mayors. With two thirds of the London boroughs coming in at or below the 300,000 population mark, and large swathes of the northern cities made up of seemingly undersized mets, the question of a reshuffle is not yet on the cards.
Existing small unitary authorities within two-tier areas, however, could be up for grabs. Those unitaries below the supposed minimum population threshold, but at the higher end, are unlikely to face restructure for the sake of it – like Brighton and Hove City Council or the 10-year-old Central Bedfordshire, which both squeeze in just under the 300,000 mark.
But after a decade of austerity, and the fiscal squeeze created by the coronavirus pandemic, it seems some of the smaller unitaries are looking increasingly unsustainable. The list includes many of the areas economically bruised by the crisis, such as Luton, Swindon, Peterborough and Thurrock. Following the restructure of Northamptonshire as a consequence of its financial collapse, could some of the smaller unitary authorities follow in its footsteps?
With the six former Berkshire unitaries all coming in under Mr Clarke’s target population – ranging from 120,000 to 220,000 – past rounds of reorganisation are looking increasingly unviable. Created in 1997, the miniscule Rutland CC has a population of under 40,000 – smaller than a district council.
As with the mets and London boroughs, small unitaries don’t seem to be a big target for this latest round of reorganisation. A recent report for the County Councils’ Network’ – seen through the lens of potential county-based restructure – suggested county towns like Derby, Nottingham, Leicester and York could be folded back into their counties. But it conceded such a move was unlikely, and ‘these unitaries are best left as they are’.
Alternatively, they could be expanded during reorganisation – although sources close to the reorganisation debate claim the Government is reluctant to embark on any restructures that would require time consuming boundary reviews and instead it favours solutions that sit along existing county and district footprints.
When it comes to upper size limits, Simon Clarke has been more coy. A recent reference to a 600,000 maximum population limit has been given in private – which would rule out all but the smallest counties – while a public letter to North Yorkshire CC said a bid for a single unitary of 610,000 would be within the scope.
As with all reorganisations, the figures tend to gain an element of elasticity depending on who the Government is talking to. In the past, factors have included the performance of the councils and the political outcomes expected from any new authorities. This time round, economic geography seems to be the driving factor under consideration.
At 1.2m, Surrey may be double the 600,000 mark, but is putting forward a single bid. It has been indicated to the county, The MJ understands, that the Government would be willing to consider being more flexible than it would at first appear, with a unitary and devolution deal closer to that seen in Cornwall than the city regions – although with the proviso that a directly elected mayor could be introduced by the new unitary.
If Mr Clarke is willing to accept a single unitary of over a million, it seems nothing is off the cards in the latest round of reorganisation.
With the Devolution and Local Recovery White Paper expected next month, there is just a matter of weeks to wait until Mr Clarke reveals his plans.
Unitary council populations
Isles of Scilly 2,224
Rutland 39,927
Hartlepool 93,663
Darlington 106,803
Bracknell Forest 122,549
Halton 129,410
Torbay 136,264
Redcar and Cleveland 137,150
Blackpool 139,446
Middlesbrough 140,980
Isle of Wight 141,771
Slough 149,539
Blackburn with Darwen 149,696
Windsor and Maidenhead 151,422
West Berkshire 158,450
North East Lincolnshire 159,563
Reading 161,780
Wokingham 171,119
North Lincolnshire 172,292
Bedford 173,292
Thurrock 174,341
Telford and Wrekin 179,854
Southend-on-Sea 183,125
Herefordshire 192,801
Bath and North East Somerset 193,282
Stockton-on-Tees 197,348
Peterborough 202,259
Warrington 210,014
York 210,618
Luton 213,052
Portsmouth 214,905
North Somerset 215,052
Swindon 222,193
Southampton 252,520
Stoke-on-Trent 256,375
Derby 257,302
Kingston upon Hull, City of 259,778
Plymouth 262,100
Milton Keynes 269,457
Medway 278,556
South Gloucestershire 285,093
Central Bedfordshire 288,648
Brighton and Hove 290,885
County Council populations
Cumbria 500,012
Buckinghamshire 543,973
East Sussex 557,229
Somerset 562,225
Warwickshire 577,933
Worcestershire 595,786
North Yorkshire 618,054
Gloucestershire 637,070
Cambridgeshire 653,537
Oxfordshire 691,667
Leicestershire 706,155
Northamptonshire 753,278
Lincolnshire 761,224
Suffolk 761,350
Devon 802,375
Derbyshire 802,694
Nottinghamshire 828,224
West Sussex 863,980
Staffordshire 879,560
Norfolk 907,760
Hertfordshire 1,189,519
Surrey 1,196,236
Lancashire 1,219,799
Hampshire 1,382,542
Essex 1,489,189
Kent 1,581,555
*Buckinghamshire and Northamptonshire are now unitary
A Greater Essex Combined Authority is as important as unitary government