The battle over next week's Spending Review continues right up to the wire. Earlier this week the Treasury settled with seven more government departments over their resource budgets including the Department for Work and Pensions, which had furiously resisted any revision of Universal Credit following the Lords vote against tax credit cuts. The reductions to 2020 come to an average 21% and follow settlement with four other Whitehall departments including the Department for Communities and Local Government which faces cuts of 30%. The police have been lobbying furiously against budget cuts but the Paris murders now give the Home Office the political clout to resist them.

All now hinges on the big departments of health and local government. But the big question is whether the Treasury, apart from just making cuts until 2020, is actually factoring in long-term trends in public spending. For what is occurring is more money being spent on the elderly, firstly through health and secondly through pensions, with less being available for other departments. According to the Resolution Foundation, health in 2010/11 was still less than the combined budgets of the unprotected departments. By 2019/20 it will be 250% bigger making up 40% of resource departmental spending. If you then add in older people's costs, including pensions the share of all government spending on health and old people will be 43% by 2020, compared to 34% in 1997.