How far does the public trust in councils, and what do chief executives think successful levelling up look like? Charlotte Pickles of Reform and Deloitte's Ed Roddis answer these questions and more in their annual State of the State report.
‘Levelling Up' provided a welcome spotlight on just how important local government is to driving better outcomes. After a decade in which council spending per head dropped by almost a quarter, this new agenda recognised that prosperity is place-based. Yet with the public finances once again under extreme pressure, there are fears of further cuts – and at a time of rising demand.
This is the backdrop to Reform's and Deloitte's 11th State of the State report, which provides an annual snapshot of government and public services. The analysis looks both at public attitudes (based on an Ipsos poll of nearly 6,000 people) and the views of senior public sector leaders through interviews with council leaders, local authority chief execs, ministers, Whitehall officials and public service heads.
Starting with the good news: the public trust local government far more than they do central government. The bad news: on only two issues – ‘treat their employees with respect' and ‘take care of your personal data' – do at least half of the public have ‘a great deal' or ‘a fair amount' of trust in their local council, and on every issue, trust had dropped compared to last year.
When asked whether they think their local council will ‘generally do the right thing for society', respondents were evenly split; 46% said they did think so, while 47% said they didn't. In comparison, far fewer people trust central government to do the right thing, 32%, versus 62% who don't.
When asked to pick their priorities for improvement over the next few years, the cost-of-living crisis and NHS waiting lists came out top, as expected. However, perhaps more surprising is that addressing climate change was the third highest priority (46%) – followed by crime and policing, and social care, both at 44%. If net zero is to be achieved, local government will need to play a full role, and the public want action.
When it comes to issues that could be deemed levelling up, the public are less concerned. Just 22% of people saw inequality between different regions as a priority for improvement, 29% picked the country's infrastructure and 17% opportunities for adults to improve their skills.
Priorities also vary between regions. While climate change was third overall, in the North East, the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the West Midlands and Greater London, crime and policing was a higher priority. And while 28% of people in the North see inequality between regions as a priority, just 16% of people in the South (excluding London) do.
When asked whether these issues will improve over the next few years, respondents were not confident. Half think climate change will get worse, against 11% who believe it will get better. For crime and policing it's 49% against 11%. Almost three-quarters of people expect the cost-of-living crisis to get worse.
The cost-of-living crisis is top of local leaders' minds as well. They expect it both to drive demand and depress budgets – a deeply worrying combination. One council chief executive told us they are already seeing increases in rent arrears and council tax defaults; other local leaders told us they are expecting more vulnerable children to require intervention. At the same time, lower paid staff – often frontline workers – are themselves struggling, and inflation is reducing spending power.
The interviews for this year's State of the State took place over the Summer and into the Autumn, when levelling up as a concept looked in the balance. With the secretary of state responsible for the Levelling Up White Paper back in post, the agenda looks more secure, but even before this, local leaders told us they remained invested in its delivery: 'Whether you call it levelling up or not, it's all in train and it's not going away.'
We asked key figures in combined and local authorities to outline their current thinking on the agenda, and they were clear it meant joining up job creation, skills provision and local transport to, as one chief executive put it, 'make economic opportunity accessible'. But there was also a consensus that success would rely on further devolution – of powers and funding. One local leader expressed it perfectly: 'I'd like devolution and not delegation.'
At both a central and local government level we found appetite for bold reform. 'Now is the time to think about a reformation of public services,' argued one chief executive, 'COVID has given us a chance to think about what really matters.'
Interviewees in local government were particularly energised by the possibilities of working with communities, building on what was achieved during the pandemic. There is a clear view that the voluntary sector plays a vital role in connecting communities and working alongside public services.
There was also a consensus that the State's impact would be even greater if it focused on outcomes and leveraged others – whether within the public sector, in communities, or in other sectors. All of which will be necessary if public services are to continue to deliver within tight budget envelopes.
State of the State finds both the public and local leaders acutely worried about the immediate challenges. But it also finds those leaders keen to work in collaboration with others – and ambitious for bold reform.
Charlotte Pickles is director of Reform and Ed Roddis is head of public sector research at Deloitte.
