It's local elections but as usual expect most of the attention to be on national politics. Even with less than a year to go local elections are a poor predictor of General Election outcomes and Euro elections even more so.

What the double set of elections will provide however is a snap shot of party morale and activity in all parties likely to find a public outlet in the Autumn party conference season and some interesting implications for the political elections within the LGA.

And the scale of the local elections this May is impressive. Elections will be held in 161 councils for over 4,000 councillors.

This includes over 1,800 councillors in the 32 London boroughs, one third of all councillors in the 36 metropolitan boroughs and 17 other unitary councillors, all-out elections in Milton Keynes and Slough and between one third and all the councillors in 74 urban and semi-rural district councils.

In addition there will elections for five directly elected Mayors in Watford and the London Boroughs of Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets.  In the latter expect a tight contest between the independent Luthur Rahman and his Labour challenger John Biggs. Northern Ireland will see elections for the 11 new councils down from the existing 26 – a potent of what might be coming to Wales.

For Labour these elections present several challenges. In London these elections were last fought on in 2010 on General Election day and Labour did surprising well winning a clutch of councils  such as Camden, Enfield, Hounslow and Brent.

This time around the opportunity for outright gains is limited but Labour should do well in tight contests in Redbridge and Croydon. Outside London annual elections since 2010 have seen Labour consolidate its hold over metropolitan boroughs such as Oldham, Dudley and Birmingham. This time it should also expect to take overall control in Bradford.

For an indication of its ability to win votes from the Conservatives keep an eye on Trafford in Greater Manchester where the local party hopes to maintain the momentum gained from the recent by-election in Wythenshawe and Sale east. In a number of boroughs including Manchester and Islington Labour looks set to wipe out the remaining group of Liberal Democrat councillors. Whether councils with few or any opposition councillors is good for local democracy is another debate.

For the Conservatives there may be more silver linings in these elections than a government party has a right to expect. This is principally a result of the continuing collapse of the Liberal Democrat local support base which is returning traditional Conservative wards such as Saddleworth in Oldham to their former party.

There is also the real opportunity to gain a London Borough (Kingston upon Thames) from Liberal Democrat control. Milton Keynes which has all out elections will be an interesting test of the current cost of living versus rising wages political discourse.

For the Liberal Democrats there is very little to look forward to in these elections. Local elections since 2010 have seen a collapse in their electoral support especially in urban and northern areas. 

Latest evidence shows that they are struggling to nominate the same number of candidates in many London boroughs as four years previously. Across the metropolitan councils they have actually nominated less candidates than UKIP (532 to 588). In Liverpool a city they controlled four years they can field candidates in only 14 out of 30 wards.

Much more so than other parties they have relied on their councillors to provide both the energy and funding for their local campaigns. In cities such as Manchester, Bradford and Leeds the remaining Lib Dem MPs are likely to see most of that councillor support disappear.

In London they are also likely to see a wholesale culling of their councillors although will probably hang on to the Borough of Sutton. Elsewhere there may be differing fortunes for Lib Dem councillors in the north and south of England and whether they face opposition from either Labour or Conservative challengers.

An interesting contest to watch is Stockport in Greater Manchester where they run the council as the largest single party and is home to two of their MPs. Combined with the possible loss of all his  MEPs it is unlikely to be a happy election night or party conference for Nick Clegg.

As for UKIP their leader has set himself the target of a breakthrough in Labour's northern heartlands. So far there is little sign of that breakthrough and they have struggled to even nominate candidates in cities like Manchester. 

He may have been better off focusing on their appeal to disaffected conservative voters in Outer London borough such as Merton and Havering where internal dissent in local Conservative Groups have created real opportunities for electoral advantage.

All in all the local and Euro elections in May present challenges for all parties. As for their impact on the General Election the voters in Scotland in September may have more of a say on that.

The impact on the forthcoming LGA political leadership elections is intriguing. LGA political control is based on a byzantine calculation on the number of councillors and the respective populations and budgets of their councils. 

For Labour this means that their likely gains in the Unitary, London and the Metropolitan councils indicates that they are on course to become the largest party.

This does mean the end of leadership of Sir Merrick Cockell who has gained widespread respect across local government for his defence and promotion of local government in the face of often lunatic ‘friendly fire' contributions from the Secretary of State and the increasingly bizarre Minister Brandon Lewis. If he doesn't get a peerage there is no justice in politics.

In preparation for change the Labour Group has decided to split the role of Chair of the LGA and the Leader of the Labour Group. Whilst it is almost certain that the long standing leader of Dudley Council, Dave Sparks, will be put forward as the Labour nomination for Chair of the LGA expect a lively contest for the position of Leader of the Labour Group.

The Conservatives have also recently changed their rules and expect that Gary Porter will continue to represent the Conservative interest.

The battered and bruised Liberal Democrats may seek solace in keeping with the Leader of Portsmouth, Gerald Vernon-Jackson although strong rumours suggest he may be their candidate to retain Portsmouth South at the General Election.

It may well be the Independent Group who will see the most turbulence after the May elections. If UKIP do surge in local elections they will consolidate their strong showing in the county elections last year.

Given the political weighting of LGA elections they may emerge as the strongest voting group within the Independents. So we may not have a UKIP MP yet but we may well see a UKIP Local spokesman at  the LGA.

For all the new political leadership team  they will have the work cut out to focus their respective parties on keeping their promises on local powers and funding before and after the 2015 General Election. It's both a great opportunity and a tremendous challenge for the LGA.

Paul Wheeler is director of the Political Skills Foundation