One of the first things I should say is that if we look back a year and think about the predictions made in early January 2011, it demonstrates that trying to predict the future politics of the NHS is a mug's game.

Back in January 2011 the Government had just published its Health and Social Care Bill. The Bill was a true reflection of the White Paper that had been published the previous July and contained the ‘revolutionary' changes outlined in it. Everyone was pretty confident about the reform programme – which had just been vetted by Oliver Letwin.