I’ve profiled 50 councils that could change control or where the results are likely to be seen as having particular political significance. When I did this last year I got some flak, with people disputing my forecasts. It’s worth saying that these are based on a review of media reporting on the elections, combined with discussions with sources in the different parties, both at a local and national level, about their targets and expectations. It has to be remembered that Labour performed particularly badly last time these council seats were up for election in 2007, and given their current lead in the opinion polls, they are predicted to make big gains tomorrow. The big unknown is quite what will happen in the many contests between Conservatives and Lib Dems. I’ve erred, based on the opinion polls, towards the Conservatives making some gains from the Lib Dems. There is a big caveat here though, the polls will not translate uniformly to what happens locally, where local issues, campaigns and council performance, will be a big factor in the results. If you think I’ve got it all wrong, please feel free to get in touch or via twitter @andysawford.
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