Being an anorak, I am currently reading a biography of George Osborne and have reached the point exactly five years ago when in the early months of 2010 the Conservatives' lead in the polls vanished down the plughole.

There are various reasons for this change in fortunes and none are to do with Gordon Brown suddenly becoming more popular. The Tories had a muddled message about where they stood; were they hug-a-hoodie one-nation Tories or traditional right-wing public spending slashers?