Despite a much tighter settlement from the Government, this year's round of council tax decision-making is set to deliver the lowest level of increases for more than a decade.

Bills, already landing on doormats across the country, are expected to rise by an average of only 3.9%. The Government will, no doubt, be relieved by this result. Depressingly, it proves, yet again, the sheer force of the threat of capping.

This year, the minister has called for ‘the average council tax increase in England to be substantially below 5%', and that is exactly what local government has delivered.

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that capping is the dominant consideration when council budgets are framed. Local factors, sadly, come a poor second. But might there be a sting in the tail of this year's announcements?

There are definitely at least two warning lights flashing.

The first concerns services. At this stage, we do not know how councils have managed to balance their tight budgets. To the extent that they have conjured up further efficiency savings, everyone will be happy.

But, if they are planning service reductions, prepare for a backlash. Local press cuttings are full of stories of possible cuts. Only time will tell how many of these options are implemented and who carries the can.

The second flashing light, rather appropriately, concerns the police. While councils have set their tax increases within the capping guideline, roughly one-third of police authorities have felt unable to do so. This draws a potential battle line with the Government. And it is a battle the Government would almost certainly prefer not to fight.

So, will the minister overlook the higher increases of a handful of authorities content that the overall picture is so positive? Or will he feel compelled to act to reinforce the rigour of the regime? Watch this space. 

Steve Freer is chief executive of CIPFA