Hot on the heels of the Social Market Foundation/RSA projection of a £48bn deficit by 2017 comes new research from the much-respected Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) this week, in advance of the Autumn [sic, it's on December 5] Statement. Those of a nervous disposition had better look away now.

The IFS report, which along with all other recent 'graphs of doom' accepts that the economy has deteriorated since the last Budget, offers two scenarios. The first assumes that the recent bad economic news – i.e. lower than expected taxes and growth – is cyclical and if so extra borrowing can be ignored as the Chancellor will still meet his target of ensuring the structural budget is in balance within five years.