The Spending Review in November softened the blow of public sector austerity by £27bn. Police commissioners heaved a sigh of relief, local authority leaders did not. Although the reductions to local government funding would not be as bad as our forecasts, they would still be higher than any other part of the public service.

The provisional finance settlement in December revealed changes to the way these cuts would be distributed – tilting the balance away from areas most dependent on grant which had been taking a higher proportion of cuts throughout the previous parliament. After years of encouragement to freeze council tax, we are now exhorted to raise tax to fund adult social care; New Homes Bonus will be radically cut back to part-fund an extended Better Care Fund (albeit not until the back end of the period).