We were talking recently to the management team of a northern metropolitan borough about how things have changed for its communities during the second lockdown. The phrase left ringing in my head is ‘survival behaviour'.
This city, like many others, is seeing marked increases in patterns of behaviour driven by desperation and the need to make it through the day, for example, shoplifting, petty crime and exploitation. At the same time, household issues such as debt, stress, mental health difficulties and domestic violence are on the rise.
Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, we are beginning to see survival behaviour in public services, too.
Previous recessions have shown us what to expect. The first wave of economic impacts is quickly followed by a second wave of social impacts. Then slower and choppier waves of unequal recovery, where inequalities become further entrenched, with some places recovering quickly and others getting left further behind.
Arguably, the financial crisis of 2008/09 set in motion events that are still washing through in our politics a decade later. This time there have been multiple economic impacts with the worst likely still to come.
For many authorities 2021/22 is the oncoming train at the end of the austerity tunnel. As it gathers pace, this economic downturn will continue to have a major impact on income for a sustained period and on demand for council services. New funding and flexibilities from Government for 2021/22 are a help and may be sufficient to stave off further Section 114s this year, but still amount to temporary life support.
Challenges will not all relate to the pandemic: the recently leaked reasonable worst-case assessment for a no-deal Brexit recognises that ‘around one in 20 local authorities [would be] at risk of financial collapse as a result of higher service demand caused by a disruptive EU exit'.
Cities like Manchester, both well-run and well-managed financially, are currently having to make grim, desperate cuts in the interests of short-term survival. These cuts are deep but surgical: it is to their credit that they have been able to set out a coherent package of measures to balance their budgets, however unpalatable they may be.
Some authorities are struggling to get to grips with the scale of the task and may be forced to make less measured cuts or deplete their reserves dangerously at the last minute.
Of course, local public services have some part to play in carrying the load placed on the UK by the pandemic, but let's be clear on the consequences.
The types of cuts now being planned are tantamount to enforced self-vandalism in the name of financial survival. They are likely to be harmful to local communities and economies, the people working for public services, local democracy, and the institutions themselves. Having been planned they also need to be delivered.
Public and political opposition is already hardening to further cuts to services such as libraries and leisure. The capacity within town halls to deliver was already eroded.
The same people are currently delivering core services, responding to COVID-19, delivering in-year savings while also trying to mobilise to deliver next year's budget – in some cases with an additional helping of local government reorganisation on top. Good people are leaving local government in search of less punishing careers.
Despite these challenges, there are some things to hope for. Firstly, as the recent Brexit negotiations have shown, appeals to ingenuity do not in themselves provide solutions, but nevertheless very talented and committed people across the sector are working hard to find ways through 2021/22 and the uncertain years beyond.
Apart from a couple of extreme examples we are not seeing any towels being thrown in yet. If there is a route through this period that avoids the worst of the damage, then most will find it.
Secondly, there are some ways in which changes accelerated by COVID-19 may actually improve public services. Remote and agile working, use of digital tools and channels, person-centred service integration: these transformational changes have always been possible, but the needle on what feels feasible has dramatically shifted.
And finally, the pandemic has shown that local is often best. When we emerge from this difficult winter there must space for a proper conversation about how councils can be empowered to lead from the front on recovery and renewal.
Martin Ellender is director, public services advisory at Grant Thornton UK LLP
