Welcome to a new political season

Dan Corry looks at the implications of changes in the national landscape as the economy shows signs of revival.

As often happens over the summer, when news is thin on the ground and journalists and politicians are on holiday, the agenda gets dominated by second order issues.

The so-called ‘silly season' now seems behind us and politics is beginning to return to normal.  What should those concerned by public policy take from the last couple of months?

It has been a different sort of summer. It did have its share of hype based on minor things.  A lot of noise was made about the travails of the opposition leader – who for many went quiet for too long.

The shenanigans over the Labour party candidate selection in Falkirk just added spice to this.  With many backbenchers – and elder Labour statesmen – always eager to be quoted, there was a feeding frenzy.  Most might not have noticed that the opinion polls hardly moved.

But, much also happened that is of more lasting significance.  One item was the beginning of better news about the economy.

At first it was a trickle, but then became a trend; surveys, hard data and indeed sentiment seemed to suggest that the economy was at last picking up.

New Bank of England governor Mark Carney's attempts to signal that interest rates will continue to stay low also helped.

No-one is expecting fast growth, but the latest round of forecasts suggest growth this year will be near 1.1 – 1.5% rather than the 0.6% as suggested by the official Office for Budget Responsibility back in March, and that 2014 will be stronger still, at somewhere north of 2%.

There are major worries about the type of recovery we are seeing.  Is it all just another bubble based on burgeoning house prices (especially in the South East) and people going back to maxing out their credit cards or Wonga loans?

There are at least some signs for optimism that the recovery will be more balanced, with manufacturing and exports showing some signs of life.

This is a fundamental change in the landscape.  It does not mean, however, that suddenly austerity is over and that council finance directors can at last get a decent night's sleep.

But it does start to get people thinking forward to a situation where the economy is moving properly again and public finances are much more on an even keel.

What are the options? What are the priorities?  Expect to see a slightly different mood around the party conferences, with things like the Fabian Spending Choices Commission exploring the prospects and options post-2015 and debates and rhetoric to try and establish who gets the credit and gains most from a slightly healthier economy.

At the same time as this positive news emerged, there were increasing stories of problems in the NHS.  Queues are back.  Doctor shortages – especially in A&E – are hot topics.

And all this is before most of the coalition's NHS reforms have fully worked their way through.  The NHS has yet to see off immigration as an issue at the top of the public concern list.

It was an issue that blew up over the summer when the Home Office sent out vans to drive around with ‘go home' messages aimed at illegal immigrants plastered on their sides.

This issue may yet re-emerge as an important public concern.

The fight will be between those who want to use stretch in the NHS as evidence that the old model can no longer work and that private sector solutions are needed even more; and those who want to use it to argue that this proves the case against change and the use of market forces.

The other major event that occurred over the summer was the frantic coming and going over support for a military strike against Syria.

Many may think this irrelevant to general public policy, but from my experience in government, events like this not only distract ministers enormously – especially the PM – but change attitudes in subtle, yet important ways.

So, if the vote not to support action really means that the UK is withdrawing from the international policeman's role, seeing itself less as a minor superpower than before and ceasing to be a supporter of the US, then quite a lot follows.

The national psyche will have changed; defence spending may need to be reconfigured; relationships with the EU may become more important, not less.  Domestic issues, too, will be much more in focus.

I suspect the party conferences will see a reflection of this mood.  Where it will take us is unclear, but this summer's long-term footprint is poised to be rather larger than a usual summer's activity.

Dan Corry is CEO of NPC, a think-tank and consultancy on third sector issues.  He is a former Treasury and Downing Street economic adviser
 

Dan Corry

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