Those of us attending last month's MJ Future Forum event were put in no doubt by presenters such as Paul Johnson of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and civil service head Sir Bob Kerslake that there is a very large elephant in the room regarding spending forecasts – namely, welfare savings.

In the March Budget George Osborne talked of possible savings of £10bn by 2016, a figure which is not currently in spending forecasts and which if not delivered will mean further cuts of half as much again.