Title

WHITEHALL

EXCLUSIVE: Government blocks release of coronavirus modelling

The Cabinet Office is understood to be blocking the release of key data on expected coronavirus infections and deaths, leaving councils in the dark.

The Cabinet Office is understood to be blocking the release of key data on expected coronavirus infections and deaths, leaving councils in the dark.

Public Health England is believed to have modelled the number of deaths that could be expected under a number of scenarios, but there is not currently a working validated model that has been shared for use among local authorities.

Councils have received various estimates on the number of deaths to expect from different government departments, leaving them unclear about which data they should be using to make their plans.

They have pleaded for localised numbers and repeatedly been promised more reliable figures based on the latest modelling, which has failed to materialise.

A Local Government Association document, seen by The MJ, read: ‘Councils and LRFs [local resilience forums] need this information immediately.'

One source said they had been told the Cabinet Office was unhappy about releasing the modelling.

A council chief executive said: ‘It's still not received and apparently the centre of government is preventing its release.

‘It's a national scandal.

'We need something other than the worst-case scenario model against which to plan hospital services, body storage, burial and cremation capacity etc.

‘At the moment all we've got is the reasonable worst-case scenario and it's really not fit-for-purpose in terms of planning.'

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government has privately acknowledged the frustration around the failure to release revised planning assumptions.

A government spokesman said: ‘We are working closely with local communities to undertake contingency planning so we can ensure the public are kept safe, and any tragic loss of life is handled with the utmost respect and care. 

‘As we learn more about the outbreak and potential future measures that may be needed we will set out those plans to LRFs.'

WHITEHALL

A Burnham-led government urgently needs to set out a timetable for devolution in all areas of England

By Ian Miller | 09 July 2026

No10 North should dispense with the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government requirement that an area must 'endure an indeterminate phase of fou...

WHITEHALL

Manchesterism and the future of local government reform

By Graeme McDonald | 09 July 2026

Graeme McDonald explains why meaningful devolution requires fiscal reform, stronger partnerships and empowered local government to deliver lasting change.

WHITEHALL

County Councils Network: The local government priorities for Burnham's premiership

By Simon Edwards | 09 July 2026

Simon Edwards says Andy Burnham has begun fleshing out what his premiership could look like, while the County Councils Network will be advocating for funding...

WHITEHALL

Political change tests organisational maturity

By Adele Wylie | 09 July 2026

Reform UK controls North Northamptonshire Council, having won the majority of seats in the 2025 elections. Chief executive Adele Wylie explains why the trans...

Dan Peters

Popular articles by Dan Peters