In five years, local government will look completely different.

However, the councils that thrive won't be the ones that were first to follow central government's roadmap for change or the ones who followed it most diligently; they will be the ones who understood that people, culture and leadership – rather than structures and target operating models – were what determined success.

While this local government reorganisation is presented as a once in a generation change to local government, the truth is that we are sector which has faced significant change in each of the last decades.

Leading transformation requires a different skillset, mindset, and resilience than managing operations or leading an organisation where there is little scope or appetite for significant change. What is needed now to lead this transformation is an ‘A-team' – a leadership group chosen for their ability to drive transformation, not their tenure

All too often, the results of transformation have been underwhelming. This is because changes in structure, service delivery or the underpinning technology have overlooked the importance of people and cultural change.

The real work of transformation is leadership – setting direction, shaping culture and driving change, not just reacting to it. This is what is required right now.

If local government was good at linking leadership, culture, and change management, this wouldn't be a radical argument. But it's not.

Reorganisations tend to focus on mechanics, such as who reports to whom, which teams move where, and what can be outsourced, while human and cultural dimensions are afterthoughts. This is why many councils struggle with disengaged staff and transformation programmes that never quite deliver.

The biggest mistake is assuming existing leadership will drive change simply because they hold senior roles.

Leading transformation requires a different skillset, mindset, and resilience than managing operations or leading an organisation where there is little scope or appetite for significant change. What is needed now to lead this transformation is an ‘A-team' – a leadership group chosen for their ability to drive transformation, not their tenure.

Another major reason transformation stalls is vested interests, individuals who subtly resist change to protect their influence, roles or ways of working.

Culture determines whether reorganisation succeeds or fails. Yet within and beyond local government, organisations treat it as something that will sort itself out once structures are in place.

This mistake comes with a performance penalty. Change-fatigued employees, unclear expectations, and unaddressed cultural shifts damage service delivery. The result is underperforming teams and councils that become weaker rather than stronger. We cannot afford this to happen as reorganisation runs its course.

Leaders must be active in shaping culture by communicating with clarity and listening, not just broadcasting messages about change and understanding that people resist uncertainty not change.

Organisations cannot default to letting finance drive reorganisation with HR brought in after decisions about future structure and partnerships have been made. This only results in workforce gaps and operational misalignment.

Successful councils must ensure financial planning and people strategy go hand in hand. A reorganisation that is only financially sustainable on paper – but not in terms of leadership, workforce capability, and culture – will fail in practice.

The potential for the new organisations emerging from this change (and it is important today that they are seen as entirely new organisations) is substantial: institutions which are built for the future, not reflective of the past, which are more responsive, and with people with the capability to manage and evolve service delivery.

The risks of getting it wrong are also real and familiar. Fragmented services, disengaged workforce and transformation which fails to deliver either efficiency or greater value.

So, this is the fork in the road for local government. Pick the path which puts people at the heart of change with leaders who understand their critical role and the levers they need to pull to maximise the potential for the new organisations or go down the well-trodden track where people and leaders burn themselves out before any meaningful transformation is delivered.

One path builds the councils of the future. The other repeats the mistakes of the past. The choice is ours.

Pam Parkes is PPMA president and commissioner at Birmingham City Council