I am reading a book called The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail but Some Don't, which is all about the art of prediction. The message is that where we have lots of data, it is difficult to differentiate between the ‘noise' in the system and the specific data that we should pay attention to. The book works through diverse examples such as earthquakes, the weather, baseball, and poker.

This a good prism through which to try to understand the current ‘noise' in our system around devolution. Virtually every trade magazine, conference and blog is dominated by the deals that are being done: who is partnering with whom, elected mayors, and so forth. But if that is all the noise, what is the signal?