Welfare reform has had a high profile in the past couple of weeks courtesy of the NAO's negative assessment of the progress of Universal Credit and the very public disagreement between a UN official and Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps over a report critical of reforms to housing benefit.

etween the soundbites and the fury one contribution to the debate which didn't receive the prominence it deserved was the 2013 State of the State report published by think tank Reform.
 
One aspect of the report, which analyses public data, government figures and key reports to present a snapshot of the UK government and public sector, immediately caught my eye. It was that public service leaders were questioning "whether central government has assessed whether savings on welfare spending will be counterbalanced by increased demand on local services."
 
That chimed with concerns I have heard expressed across the country by councillors and senior officers and the overwhelming feeling from them is that central government has little idea what impact these changes are likely to have at a local level.
 
This summer, to provide a clearer picture of the impact, the LGA commissioned the Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion to analyse how the reforms will play out on a council by council basis. The findings came as little surprise to those at the sharp end of local government decision making but made worrying reading nonetheless.
 
The analysis found that by 2015/16 the income of households claiming benefit will be lower on average by £1,615 per year. However, a shortage of jobs and affordable homes in many areas means that four out of every five of those households are likely to need some form of assistance from their council to help them cope with the reduction in welfare.
 
It is estimated that the combined impact of housing reforms on these tenants is likely to be £1 billion each year. So far, £155 million has been made available to councils via Discretionary Housing Payments, which represents just £1 in every £7 of the impact of housing reforms on tenants.
 
The report looked only at the direct financial impact on recipients but as any director of social services will tell you, any widespread downward shift in income is likely to bring with it a higher demand for the services they provide and with it greater demand on already stretched resources.
 
This is challenging analysis for the Government but the message is clear; ministers must ensure councils have enough resources to meet the likely increase in demand for local support and services.